Americas

In the US, appearances by several Fed officials will be closely watched for further clues on the monetary policy outlook, following the Fed’s rate hike this month and a more hawkish tone from Chair Warsh, which helped restore confidence in the central bank’s commitment to tackling inflation. Key economic data will include durable goods orders, which are expected to fall 0.5% in August after rising 1.1% in July, while new home sales are forecast to be little changed at 0.61 million. Flash S&P Global PMIs will provide an early read on September business activity, with the services sector expected to remain the main contributor to private-sector growth. Other releases include the second-quarter current account, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Richmond Fed and Kansas City Fed indexes, and final Michigan consumer sentiment. Investors will also focus on Costco’s quarterly earnings on Thursday. Elsewhere in the Americas, Mexico’s central bank will announce its monetary policy decision, while Canada will release retail trade data. Mid-month inflation figures are also due from Mexico and Brazil.

Washington DC, US

Europe

Investors will focus on the release of flash PMI data for the Euro Area, Germany, France and the UK. Manufacturing activity is expected to remain in expansion, with growth forecast to accelerate further in the Euro Area, Germany and the UK, while France is expected to see a softer pace of expansion. In services, activity is projected to strengthen slightly in the Euro Area, despite a contraction in France, while Germany is expected to stabilize and the UK to slow modestly. Beyond the PMI surveys, attention will turn to Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index, which is expected to rise for a fifth consecutive month to its highest level since April 2024. By contrast, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is forecast to deteriorate amid elevated energy prices and the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Euro Area consumer sentiment is also expected to weaken. Other data to watch include Eurozone new car registrations, French business and consumer surveys, and UK CBI industrial trends orders and distributive trades, UK public sector net borrowing and GfK consumer confidence. Meanwhile, central banks in Sweden, Switzerland and Norway will announce interest-rate decisions. On the political front, voters in Berlin and the northern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will go to the polls on September 20. The elections are attracting particular attention following the AfD’s strong showing in the recent Saxony-Anhalt election, which has increased pressure on Chancellor Merz and his CDU. In Berlin, there is no clear frontrunner ahead of the vote.

Paris, France

Asia Pacific

In China, the People’s Bank of China is expected to leave its one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively, for a 16th consecutive month, as policymakers have favored targeted and structural measures to support specific sectors rather than broad-based monetary easing. Chinese markets will be closed on September 25 for the Mid-Autumn Festival. In Japan, the Silver Week holidays will see markets closed from Monday through Wednesday. The economic calendar will nevertheless feature preliminary September PMIs, which are expected to show that manufacturing growth remained robust. In India, the economic calendar is relatively light, with infrastructure output and preliminary PMIs in focus. In Australia, the labour force report is expected to show that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.5%, while employment is forecast to have increased by 20K. Flash PMIs are also due. Elsewhere, Singapore and Hong Kong are set to release inflation data, while Hong Kong and Thailand will publish trade figures. Unemployment data are also due from Singapore and Taiwan. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia will announce its monetary policy decision.

Beijing, China