America

In the US, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with market attention focused on the updated FOMC economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Investors will be looking for guidance on how the Fed views inflation risks amid US-Iran tensions, which have disrupted the global oil supply chain, and the implications for future monetary policy. The week also features a packed economic calendar, including February’s PPI and industrial production. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.3%, down from January’s 0.5% gain, while industrial output is forecast to increase 0.2%, following a strong 0.7% advance in January. Pending home sales are likely to have continued declining, while regional manufacturing indexes including the NY Empire State and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Indexes, are expected to have softened. Other notable releases include new home sales, factory orders, capital flows, the NAHB Housing Market Index, and wholesale inventories. Attention will also be drawn to Nvidia’s annual GTC conference, which may provide further insights into the future of AI. Elsewhere in the Americas, central banks in Canada and Brazil will announce monetary policy decisions. Canadian rates are expected to remain unchanged for a third consecutive meeting, while policymakers in Brazil are likely to lower borrowing costs by 25bps. Market watchers will also monitor Canadian inflation, retail sales, new housing prices, and housing starts, alongside Brazil’s business sentiment indicators and GDP figures for Argentina and Chile.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

Europe

It will be a busy week for monetary policy in Europe, with several central banks set to announce interest rate decisions. The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave its key rates unchanged, with the deposit rate seen holding at 2%. Investors will be looking for clues about the outlook for the remainder of the year, as markets anticipate the ECB could raise borrowing costs later in 2026 amid concerns about the economic impact of the conflict involving Iran and the resulting energy-driven rise in inflation. The Bank of England is also expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%, though markets are currently pricing in a cut to 3.50%, likely either in April or June. In Switzerland, policymakers are set to keep borrowing costs at the current 0% level, while the Bank of Russia is expected to deliver a 50-basis-point rate cut. Sweden’s Riksbank will also announce a monetary policy decision. On the data front, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment index is expected to fall sharply amid the escalating conflict with Iran. Other releases include final euro area inflation figures, wage growth, current account and trade data, German producer prices, as well as Italy’s trade balance and final inflation readings. In the UK, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.2%, while wage growth likely slowed. Public sector borrowing is also expected to have eased last month.

European Central Bank, Frankfurt

Asia Pacific

In China, investors will assess the regular batch of monthly economic data that will provide an update on how the economy is evolving. Industrial production is likely to have risen 5.1% in the first two months of the year, down from 5.9% in the same period last year, while retail sales probably increased 2.5%, well below the 4% growth recorded in the first two months of 2025. Unemployment, fixed-asset investment, and house price data are also due next week, while the People’s Bank of China is set to announce its one- and five-year loan prime rates. Additionally, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in France on March 15–16 to discuss trade issues, ahead of a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Beijing later this month. In Japan, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%. However, a weakening yen and surging oil prices have fueled speculation that the central bank may need to accelerate policy normalization. Key releases next week include trade data, with the country’s deficit expected to have narrowed sharply in February, while machinery orders are likely to have declined. The Reuters Tankan survey and final industrial production figures are also due. Meanwhile, India will report February trade and unemployment figures, while wholesale price inflation is expected to rise to 2%. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike, following a similar move in February. February employment data will also be released, with the economy expected to have added about 20,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate likely edged up to 4.2%. Elsewhere in the region, trade figures are due from New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, while inflation data are scheduled from Malaysia and Hong Kong. New Zealand will also release GDP figures. Finally, central banks in Indonesia and Taiwan are set to announce monetary policy decisions.